Would Britain have attacked the Union over the Trent Affair?
Short answerPossibly, if the United States had refused to de-escalate. Britain opposed Confederate slavery yet could still be forced to defend its rights and prestige.
NotesThe historical American response gave Britain enough satisfaction to de-escalate without losing face. London had no wish to enter the Civil War on behalf of a slaveholding Confederacy. A more confrontational policy from Secretary Seward, especially refusal to apologize or release the envoys, could nevertheless have forced Britain's hand. The episode shows how maritime neutral rights and public honor can produce war even when neither government's underlying strategic interest requires it.