If the Trent Affair had never happened

Might the U.S. Civil War have developed differently if the Trent Affair had not happened?

Possibly: Confederate hopes for foreign recognition might have faded sooner, though that alone was unlikely to cause an early collapse.

The Trent Affair helped keep Confederate expectations of international recognition alive by creating a real Anglo-American crisis around Southern envoys. Without the incident, those hopes might have faded sooner. Diplomatic disappointment alone would probably not have made the Confederacy collapse early, because its war effort endured conditions that outside observers already considered unsustainable. The likely change would therefore be to Southern expectations and diplomacy rather than an immediate battlefield result. That effect is distinct from the crisis's more dramatic potential to trigger war.