Three carriers carrying 60 aircraft each could launch two waves of 90. If half their torpedoes struck the harbor bed, 90 weapons would still run toward targets. Allowing another half of those to miss leaves about 45 hits from the 180-aircraft force. A smaller attack by 100 to 120 aircraft produces about 25 to 30 hits under the same assumptions. The one-in-four hit rate is intended as a conservative estimate within the scenario, rather than a demonstrated performance figure.
Notable Point · 1:09:12-1:11:17
A quarter of the torpedoes hitting would still cause heavy losses
A deliberately conservative scenario estimate compares 100 to 120 attacking aircraft with 180 aircraft launched in two waves.