Threats rise and fall, while geography and economic dependence create persistent national risks. An island state may depend on imported food, exports, sea trade, and distant territories even when no current opponent appears likely to attack them. A long land border remains a risk even while neighbouring states are friendly. Switzerland supplies a continental example: a low perceived threat of invasion does not provide more territory in which to absorb an attack if one occurs. The likelihood can be small while the consequences remain severe. Those lasting exposures justify maintaining a baseline of defensive capability.
Chapter · 52:10-54:23
Threats change, but national risks endure
A state must size forces for enduring exposure to trade, geography, and limited strategic depth rather than only the adversary that appears most likely today.