A changing threat can reverse a sensible force-design choice

A nearby dictatorship's military claims and territorial rhetoric may drive a navy toward warfighting platforms rather than presence and maritime-security ships. That is a rational response even if the neighbour's apparent strength is partly propaganda, because its leaders may believe their own claims and create a real threat. If the state instead collapses into civil war, the urgent requirements become disaster relief, refugee movement, and maritime security, tasks for which the combat-focused fleet may be poorly arranged. Reorienting ships toward those humanitarian and constabulary missions can then leave the navy ill-suited when a different neighbour starts a war. A decision can be sensible when made yet look wrong after events change, and no force structure can eliminate that strategic uncertainty.