Why attrition, not a second Tsushima, is the likely outcome

Japan would probably try to draw British and American forces into an attritional campaign near home waters. British task forces could advance in protected groups and establish bases as they went, denying Japan the single exhausted target imagined by decisive-battle doctrine. Superior Allied industrial capacity would let a damaged advance pause, rebuild, and resume. Japanese defeat and isolation could eventually create room for a negotiated Far Eastern settlement. An already united Anglo-French-American coalition might delay German and Italian escalation, although a later European war remains likely in this scenario. Once the Far Eastern allies begin arguing after peace, the Axis powers could exploit the interval to rearm and renew their expansion.