Diplomacy's effects are difficult to reduce to a numerical score. A historian can identify ships, ambassadors, and later outcomes, but sequence alone does not prove causation. The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy is a direct warning against claiming that a diplomatic result automatically followed from a particular visit. Repeated naval calls may still matter indirectly by creating dinners and contacts for ambassadors. A nearby warship can also give an ambassador practical help during a crisis, which may strengthen relationships over time.
Notable Point · 39:47-41:10
The hard-to-measure effects of naval diplomacy
Naval diplomacy works through qualitative effects, so historians must distinguish plausible influence from simple sequence when linking a ship's visit to a later result.