Third- and fourth-offset planning is taking place while important technologies are still in transition and their destination remains unclear. By contrast, nuclear technology had undergone roughly a decade of development when the first offset emerged in the 1950s. Much of the second offset also grew from Second World War-era research that had been refined long enough to support projections about future capability. A strategic label can therefore outrun the technology meant to make it work.
Notable Point · 41:09-42:15
Why unsettled technology frustrates offset planning
The first two offsets rested on technologies mature enough to support force planning, while today's rapidly changing systems offer no equally stable basis for a third or fourth.