How an Italian exit after Taranto would trap German strategy

A devastating Taranto raid that drove Italy from the war would confront Germany with hostile Italian forces, exposed positions in North Africa, and too few troops in Italy to impose an easy occupation.

Question

If a devastating attack on Taranto had pushed Italy out of the war, would Germany simply have invaded Italy?

Short answer

It might have tried, but in 1940 Germany lacked the later occupation force and would face hostile Italian forces, a vulnerable North African position, and competing preparations in the east.

Notes

Italian forces supplied most Axis manpower in North Africa at this stage. If Mussolini fell and Italy left the war in 1940, invading Italy would not automatically secure those troops or their overseas position. Germany would also be preparing for the invasion of the Soviet Union, turning an Italian collapse into a strategic crisis rather than a simple occupation problem.