A more devastating three-carrier attack at Taranto might make the United States less complacent at Pearl Harbor. The example could draw more attention to the vulnerability of concentrated battleships and perhaps discourage such a neat anchorage. American officers might still explain the result as something that happened to Italy rather than a warning about their own fleet. The distinction shows why available evidence does not automatically change doctrine: institutions can notice a warning and still reason it away.
Notable Point · 1:18:32-1:19:09
Taranto's warning may still be discounted at Pearl Harbor
A larger British success at Taranto might attract more American attention, but institutional confidence could still lead officers to treat Italy's experience as inapplicable.