The counterfactual tests the projected damage against the next concrete fleet decisions. During Operation White, Force H historically withdrew rather than risk Renown and Ark Royal against Giulio Cesare and Vittorio Veneto; with only Cesare operational, that calculation might reverse. At Cape Spartivento, a British battleship, a battlecruiser, and Ark Royal would likewise confront one remaining Italian capital ship instead of a broader battle fleet. These conditional force-balance arguments show how heavier damage at Taranto could change subsequent sorties before any wider campaign effect is considered.
Chapter · 22:08-23:51
Operation White and Cape Spartivento after a heavier Taranto strike
With Giulio Cesare potentially the only Italian battleship still available, Operation White and Cape Spartivento would present far less favourable surface balances for Italy.