Why Taranto was not another Channel Dash

Was Taranto as unlikely to succeed as the Channel Dash?

The risks were different: Taranto had no fighter opposition and fixed targets at night, while the Channel Dash involved moving ships and fighters in daylight.

The Channel Dash involved moving ships, daylight, and fighter opposition. At Taranto the attackers worked at night, knew the fixed target layout, and did not have to fight through an airborne interceptor screen. The harbour still imposed intense flak and balloon hazards. Its stationary targets and absent fighter opposition removed several uncertainties present in the Channel action.