Could a more devastating Taranto raid have knocked Italy out of the war?
Short answerNot necessarily, but it could have set Italian operations back sharply and improved Allied prospects in North Africa by disrupting convoy routes.
NotesThis is a contingent outcome, dependent on significantly greater damage to the Regia Marina than the historical raid achieved. The presence of HMS Eagle and a maximum-strength strike might have increased the damage without automatically forcing Italy out of the war. A crippled battle fleet would have pushed Italian operations back and made Axis convoys to North Africa much easier for Britain to interdict. Earlier Allied control of North Africa could then reduce Italy's options and shorten the period in which its navy sustained the theatre.