Would a successful Taiwanese nuclear test deter China?
Short answerIt could instead trigger an invasion during the gap between a test and a credible, deliverable nuclear deterrent.
NotesThe answer argues that a Taiwanese nuclear test would be more likely to accelerate an invasion than deter one immediately. Testing a device is different from possessing enough deliverable weapons, protected launch systems, and operational readiness to make retaliation credible. That gap creates a preventive-war incentive: Beijing could see a closing window before Taiwan converts technical success into a usable deterrent. A later comment notes that quietly reproducing Israel's posture would be difficult because Taiwan's political and geographic circumstances are different. The conclusion is about the perilous transition to a deterrent, not a claim that nuclear weapons can never deter attack once securely deployed.