War-risk insurance could make the waters around Taiwan commercially unusable even for ships belonging to neutral countries. The scenario sends Japanese trade across the Pacific and through the Panama Canal to reach Europe. It also assumes that fighting spreads enough to make nearby South China Sea routes unsafe. Shipping disruption would therefore begin before governments agreed sanctions or decided whether to intervene.
Notable Point · 8:25-9:55
Shipping insurance could force long detours around a Taiwan war
Insurance costs and an expanding war zone could disrupt neutral shipping before sanctions take effect.