Even a carefully prepared Chinese campaign would begin amid a peacetime trade shock whose full effects cannot be known in advance. The temporary blockage of the Suez Canal offers a comparison, but disruption around Taiwan would be far larger because so much global shipping passes nearby. Timing could amplify the damage when seasonal container flows are carrying consumer goods into Europe and North America. Economic consequences therefore belong in the invasion plan from the outset rather than in a later assessment of the war.
Notable Point · 20:16-22:30
A Taiwan conflict would dwarf the Suez blockage
The Suez Canal blockage offers only a small preview of the trade shock an invasion planner must expect around Taiwan's far busier sea lanes.