How Russia's failures might affect a Taiwan decision

Did Russia's difficulties in Ukraine reduce the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan?

Not necessarily; China might treat Russia's campaign as an execution failure and seek to prove its own approach on a smaller target first.

Russia's early failures did not automatically remove the prospect of a conflict over Taiwan. Chinese leaders would need a rapid result because a prolonged amphibious campaign would expose the political and military risks of the decision. Much depends on whether planners conclude that Ukraine proved such wars unworkable or merely that Russia executed its campaign badly. If they adopt the second interpretation, they may believe their own forces can avoid the same errors. A smaller-island operation could then be used to test systems before an attempt against Taiwan. This remains a March 2022 assessment of decision-making incentives rather than a prediction that an invasion was imminent.