Why Taiwan should not be assumed to capitulate

Do serious observers really expect Taiwan to capitulate rather than fight an invasion?

No. Taiwan is expected to resist, making easy-capitulation assumptions unserious.

He says serious observers who understand Taiwan should not expect automatic capitulation. Public commentary can still repeat that scenario because analysts are paid to keep talking and writing, whether or not a premise is sound. The strategic lesson is to treat the defender's will as part of the military problem rather than assume it away. A campaign planned around easy political collapse risks encountering a much bloodier reality.