The deterrence argument is deliberately uncertain. Reported cooperation among South Africa, Israel, and Taiwan during the 1970s and early 1980s is compared with South Africa's acknowledged nuclear work and Israel's strategic opacity. Taiwan's possession of nuclear weapons remains unproven in this account. Its technical base and the threat of invasion nevertheless raise the question of whether China can safely dismiss the possibility. A story from a Jewish revolt against Rome, in which defenders at a mountain fortress killed themselves rather than submit, challenges assumptions about self-preservation. Their willingness and motives remain questions within that historical analogy. For an invasion planner, uncertainty about extreme resistance could affect predictable landing routes and force concentrations.
Notable Point · 48:10-50:54
Nuclear ambiguity complicates invasion-route planning
Reported historical nuclear cooperation and Taiwan's technical capacity create an uncertainty an attacker must consider without treating weapon possession as proven.