The nuclear scenario begins with an account of cooperation between Taiwan, South Africa and Israel during the 1970s and early 1980s. Taiwan's concern for national survival supplies the proposed motive for seeking deterrence against a much larger nuclear-armed neighbor. Present possession of nuclear weapons remains conjectural in this discussion. If Taiwan retained an undisclosed high-yield weapon, waiting until the first wave landed could expose a concentration of assault ships to a devastating counterattack. Losing that shipping would threaten the landing force's follow-on support.
Chapter · 1:34:16-1:38:51
Nuclear ambiguity raises the cost of invasion planning
A speculative nuclear-deterrence scenario considers how uncertainty about Taiwan's weapons could complicate attacks on concentrated amphibious shipping.