The interpretation offered here treats China's leadership as reluctant to take major risks. Threatening invasion can influence Taiwanese politics and provide a domestic political outlet without incurring the costs of war. An actual invasion would expose Beijing to failure and wider consequences. Repeated threats nevertheless carry their own risk: leaders may come to believe their rhetoric, or the public may demand that they follow through. The argument explains a possible pressure toward action without establishing a timetable for invasion.
Notable Point · 39:34-41:44
Repeated invasion threats can create pressure to act
An invasion threat can serve political purposes while repeated threats create pressure to follow through.