Deterring a Taiwan war by making the costs persist

If wartime trade stops anyway, can longer-term economic consequences help deter a Taiwan conflict?

In the panel's argument, the prospect of lasting disruption adds a cost that temporary wartime losses do not.

The proposed deterrent depends on what a government expects after the fighting. A belief that trade and other relationships will quickly return to their previous state reduces the anticipated cost. The prospect of lasting disruption adds a further consequence to weigh before starting a conflict.