Why a Taiwan conflict would disrupt global trade

The waters around Taiwan carry enough trade that even neutral countries would feel a conflict through rerouting, insurance costs, and capital flight. Unlike the Red Sea disruption, avoiding a Taiwan war zone could force some East Asian traffic across the Pacific and through the Panama Canal before it could approach Europe or Southeast Asia from the other direction. Taiwan and China also occupy distinct but important niches in the global economy, so investors would try to move capital before sanctions or wartime controls took effect. Higher freight costs would accompany a recessionary shock that reaches countries choosing neutrality.