Q&A · 7:35:06-7:36:48

Uncertainty over outside intervention in a Taiwan blockade

Outside intervention remains conditional, while the economic effects of a blockade would extend beyond Taiwan and China.

Question

Would Japan, Australia, and other navies try to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan?

Short answer

No definite outcome is given; the response would depend on the circumstances, public pressure, and political decisions at the time.

Notes

Whether Japanese, Australian, or other forces would try to break a blockade is left unresolved. The circumstances, public pressure, and the people making decisions would affect the response. A proposal to put economic pressure on China through its container trade introduces a further constraint: disrupting those flows would also disrupt a globally integrated economy. A military attack on Taiwan could create comparable economic damage. Those costs leave uncertainty about the form and extent of any outside intervention.