Why an opening victory would not secure the raiders' return

A German task group might win its first encounter and still fail to survive the campaign. The Royal Navy would organize follow-on forces to block its return to home waters. Long-range destroyers and cruisers could fan out from the heavy ships and inflict severe damage on convoys guarded mainly by sloops and corvettes before regrouping. That dispersal increases the damage a sortie can cause while also widening the hunt once the raiders are detected. Germany gains a dangerous opening phase, while British pursuit and geography continue to threaten the formation's return.