In the F-15 and F-22 analogy, planners build against an opponent's projected capability. F-15 development answers the performance attributed to potential enemy aircraft. A later opponent designed to defeat the F-15 then becomes the threat the F-22 needs to overcome. In this account, that caution produced capability beyond what rivals ultimately fielded. The same reasoning explains why interwar navies would respond to an advertised Soviet battleship rather than assume that its armor or construction would fail.
Notable Point · 38:34-39:26
Threat estimates push the F-15 and F-22 toward overmatch
The F-15 and F-22 analogy shows how conservative threat estimates can produce deliberate capability overmatch.