Beyond about 1936, the outcome becomes much less certain because Stalin's response to Japanese withdrawal cannot be assumed. Japan's departure would force Moscow to decide whether to leave the treaty system or remain with Britain, France, and the United States. Continued Soviet participation could give the Second London Treaty political weight beyond ship limits. Britain would then have to weigh German accommodation against the risk of alienating Moscow as well as Paris. That pressure might prevent the Anglo-German Naval Agreement and turn the remaining treaty group into a de facto alliance.
Chapter · 3:15:42-3:17:15
The Second London Treaty could become a de facto alliance
Continued Soviet participation after Japan leaves could turn the 1936 agreement into a political bloc against treaty outsiders.