Did Sweden sell iron to Britain during the Second World War, or did it go to Germany and the Soviet Union?
Short answerThe explanation given is that regional wartime conditions directed Sweden's ore to Germany. A different outcome at Narvik could have allowed Britain to buy it and deny it to German industry.
NotesGerman control of Norway and Finland's war against the Soviet Union are presented as constraints directing Swedish ore towards Germany. Narvik provides the focus for a counterfactual: without German control of the port, Britain could buy the ore on the open market. American backing for those purchases is considered probable. Germany would then face the question of whether the ore justified invading a well-defended Sweden. The alternative purchasing scheme depends on a different outcome at Narvik.