Surface-raider prospects after 1940

After 1940, did German surface raiders have any realistic prospects compared with concentrating on submarines?

Historical heavy raiders had little room to operate, but a numerous force of simpler fast cruisers might have helped seize Norway and then used Norwegian and French bases to sustain Atlantic operations.

Submarines were Germany's strongest historical choice, but casualty and tonnage ratios alone do not prove strategic success. The figures discussed are roughly 72,000 Allied naval and merchant deaths against about 30,000 U-boat personnel killed, with uncertainty over what each total includes. The alternative is a 'good enough' cruiser produced in quantity, analogous to prioritizing a reliable mass-produced tank over more complex prestige designs. Forward bases and replaceable numbers drive the counterfactual more than the survival of a few isolated capital ships.