Q&A · 4:03:12-4:05:02

Suez without American intervention creates too many second-order effects

A successful Anglo-French operation might preserve British influence, but regime change, canal access, shipping patterns, and later conflicts make the counterfactual impossible to settle quickly.

Question

If the United States had not intervened in the Suez Crisis, would Britain retain major regional influence and avoid later conflicts?

Short answer

Possibly, if the operation quickly produced a cooperative Egyptian government, but the political and commercial consequences are too extensive to calculate confidently without a major dedicated study.

Notes

The plausible route to American nonintervention is a rapid campaign followed by an Egyptian military revolt against Nasser. A replacement government would then align against communism and restore the canal arrangements sought by Britain and France. Preserved British influence could prevent some conflicts while causing others. Keeping the canal open during periods when it historically closed might also alter the growth and economics of ship size, extending the consequences far beyond regional diplomacy.