Separate enduring risks from changing threats

In this planning method, risk means a persistent national vulnerability, while a threat is something that could exploit it. An island nation's sea approaches, trade dependence, and overseas territories remain exposed as particular adversaries change. Presence, deterrence, alliance support, and acceptance of exposure are different responses. Both likelihood and consequence matter: a low-probability threat can still demand protection when failure would severely damage sovereignty or the economy. Threat assessments should look ahead at five-year intervals through thirty years and be revised as conditions change.