Understand the enemy and yourself

Japan's expectation of a decisive battle in the Second World War offers a modern comparison: even a major victory would not necessarily have made the United States concede. Mithridates and Tigranes likewise won large tactical victories, but Rome returned with a larger army rather than ending the war. They judged Roman reactions through the expectations of their own societies and misread Rome's capacity and resolve. Battlefield success therefore produced a poor strategic forecast. The comparison shows why plans must account for an opponent's political culture and willingness to continue fighting. The book's examples also support a warning that wars are often started by people who see what they want to believe.