Closing recruitment creates the next personnel shortage

Do naval personnel shortages mainly reflect failures to identify talent and train ratings?

Stopping recruitment once numbers look sufficient can leave the navy short of experienced people years later.

A personnel shortage can arise when recruiting closes after the service decides it has enough people. That saves money immediately while removing the intake that would supply experienced personnel later. Keeping recruitment steadier over the intervening decade is the proposed alternative. Reopening the intake after a gap appears still leaves an estimated two or three years before recruitment can repair it. Turning the intake down again would repeat the same problem about ten years later.