The status-ship gap could last into the 2040s

The cited Russian frigates and submarines commonly require about eight to eleven years from laying down to service, so a new capital ship would probably need about a decade. Even an immediate start would leave the surviving old ships carrying the status role well into the 2030s. The forecast is that a replacement programme will wait until at least a year after the war with Ukraine ends because money and engineering capacity remain committed elsewhere. If the war continues for another three or four years, this could put the eventual ship in the 2040s. Slava-class cruisers have little room for further growth, and even the larger nuclear Kirovs face an eventual economic and physical limit to refit. Admiral Kuznetsov is treated as largely unavailable. Of five nominal status ships on the list, only one is judged likely to remain available for some time, with another dependent on further work. That leaves very little capacity for the Pacific, Northern, and Black Sea fleets as well as distant diplomatic visits.