Axis weakness does not give Stalin a ready offensive army

How would Stalin react to a weaker Axis in 1941?

Probably with little immediate action, because purges and wholesale modernization left the Red Army unable to exploit the opportunity effectively.

Stalin was not merely waiting for an ideal date to attack. The Soviet senior officer corps had been purged, and the army was absorbing new tanks, trucks, aircraft, and organization. That transition made large offensive action difficult even if Italy collapsed and Germany appeared weaker. Strategic opportunity does not automatically create the forces needed to exploit it.