Should the St Nazaire raid have been expected from earlier Royal Navy port raids and blockades?
Short answerYes. Attacking enemy naval assets in harbor was established Royal Navy practice, and the concentration on one dry dock was comparatively limited.
NotesA raid on St Nazaire's dry dock fits the Royal Navy's long practice of attacking enemies in port. Earlier port raids and blockades made the type of operation predictable. The attack on the Danish navy in the Napoleonic era supplies a comparison with a much larger target. Against that precedent, concentrating on one dry dock appears comparatively limited.