Japanese-controlled coast-guard personnel seize the British-flagged SS Vincent Paul over alleged unlawful trading and unpaid taxes, prompting HMS Birmingham and HMS Folkestone to intervene. Captain Brind insists that a complaint against the ship belongs before a British admiralty court and prepares to escort it away. Three Japanese heavy cruisers train their guns on Birmingham, which assigns one turret to each cruiser and its fourth to the headquarters ashore. The cruisers are described as Ashigara-class ships, but their individual identities are not fully resolved. At ranges as short as sixty meters, limited gun depression could prevent effective hull hits while destructive upperworks damage leaves ships afloat but unusable. Historically the convoy leaves without firing; the proposed route to war is a subsequent Japanese attempt to stop it at sea under political pressure to recover lost prestige.
Chapter · 40:58-47:01
The SS Vincent Paul flashpoint at Tsingtao
A British-flagged merchant ship's seizure leads to a close-range confrontation at Tsingtao; the counterfactual turns on a later attempt to intercept the departing convoy.