Why the Spanish-American War was the greater strategic surprise

Which was more shocking, the Spanish-American War or the Russo-Japanese War?

The Spanish-American War was more surprising; a Russo-Japanese conflict was widely foreseeable because the two expansionist powers operated next to one another.

The Spanish-American War was the greater surprise because many observers did not expect Spain to fight. The relatively isolationist United States entering so forcefully was another surprise even in the context of the Monroe Doctrine. Russia and Japan, by contrast, were neighboring expansionist powers whose interests were already colliding. Contemporary observers therefore speculated about when and how a Russo-Japanese conflict would occur, making the war less surprising as a strategic event.