Starting a war to preserve the Soviet Union is judged likely to leave Moscow in a worse military and geopolitical position than the breakup that actually occurred. Even a government still claiming Soviet legitimacy would retain more room to operate if it avoided an external war. Repression within Soviet territory and attempts to force former Warsaw Pact allies back into line are treated as different political problems. Intervention against the latter is judged difficult to sustain even for hardliners. The separation of the security services into national organizations further weakens the machinery through which Moscow could impose a common policy.
Notable Point · 49:36-51:09
Why a hardliner war could leave Moscow weaker than breakup
The proposed war would compound the loss of allies and institutions that a hardliner government was trying to reverse.