South China Sea rivalry, arbitration, and seabed resources

What is happening in the South China Sea, and why is it so dangerous?

It combines great-power competition, weak scope for neutral arbitration, and overlapping claims to maritime zones and valuable seabed resources.

In this 2020 assessment, the South China Sea is a persistent powder keg. A genuinely multipolar balance can give a third power room to arbitrate between rivals, while a contest among only a few very large poles is more dangerous. The maritime claims concern control of exclusive economic zones as well as access to seabed resources. The resource contest extends beyond oil and gas to potentially valuable rare-earth mineral deposits whose geological bands continue offshore.