How far could China push in the South China Sea before other states said enough?
Short answerThere was no knowable fixed threshold; a naval incident could activate national and allied responses that politics then made difficult to de-escalate.
NotesChina and its neighbors cannot see a fixed line marking how far pressure may go. The threshold depends on domestic politics as well as treaties and external military commitments. An attack on a Philippine, Indonesian, Vietnamese, or Taiwanese ship creates one set of uncertainties, while firing on an Australian, British, or American vessel creates a clearer expectation of national response. Alliance reactions could then widen the confrontation. Confrontational diplomatic rhetoric may leave little room to describe a shooting incident as accidental and step back once forces have exchanged fire.