American political resistance to the hard-line government would probably force rapid backpedaling once the scale of the coalition became clear. The six-month estimate assigns roughly four months to negotiating what each belligerent wants, leaving little time for a long mobilization or industrial contest. That delay might spare some overseas possessions, but British Indian Ocean forces, Australian station resources, and Japanese participation could still seize the Philippines quickly enough to affect the peace. The longer Boxer Rebellion makes the duration uncertain, although war termination rather than battlefield annihilation still drives the scenario.
Notable Point · 1:10:47-1:13:21
The short war and its negotiation clock
The forecasted six-month war spends more time arranging a settlement than fighting, although fast coalition moves against the Philippines could create bargaining gains first.