A string of short, successful campaigns can teach planners to expect the next war to end quickly. Iran and North Korea have spent decades digging in and building systems around anticipated strikes. That preparation gives their forces resilience that cannot be inferred from short wars against less prepared opponents. Success can therefore reinforce a flawed planning assumption. The old promise that a war will be over by Christmas remains a recurring failure of judgment.
Notable Point · 3:17:38-3:19:50
Why recent short wars can distort planning
A run of quick victories can obscure the resilience of states that have spent decades preparing their forces and infrastructure to survive attack.