Would losing Richmond's industry decide the war?

Would losing Richmond's industry mean losing the war regardless of where the Confederate capital was?

Not necessarily. A capital farther south could have encouraged development elsewhere, although dependence on Richmond as the only remaining industrial centre would already mean serious trouble.

Richmond's industrial importance did not make the location of the Confederate capital irrelevant. A capital farther south, combined with investment in the surrounding region, could have encouraged another centre of development. That is a counterfactual possibility rather than a demonstrated alternative outcome. If Richmond had become the Confederacy's only remaining industrial centre, its strategic position was already grave.