Q&A · 4:12:31-4:14:07

Would completed arms orders have deterred Saddam from invading Iran?

Probably. Saddam expected the revolutionary government to collapse amid political chaos, so a larger Iranian inventory would not necessarily change his decision.

Question

If all the Shah's pre-revolution arms orders had been delivered, would Saddam Hussein still have invaded Iran?

Short answer

Probably. Saddam expected the revolutionary government to collapse amid political chaos, so a larger Iranian inventory would not necessarily change his decision.

Notes

The scenario includes 80 Tomcats and 714 Phoenix missiles alongside additional warships, other equipment, and support packages ordered before the revolution. Completing those deliveries would give Iran more firepower. Saddam is still expected to invade because he believed the political chaos after the revolution would cause the new government to collapse. That expectation concerned the government's ability to hold together, rather than simply the strength of Iran's inventory. A larger arsenal would therefore leave the central misjudgment behind the invasion intact.