A German landing is not expected to force Britain into a peace settlement. Its strategic effect would come from demonstrating that the home islands could be penetrated. British leaders would face pressure to retain more ships, aircraft and troops for home defense, disrupting plans for operations elsewhere. The German force ashore would still struggle to obtain the resupply needed to survive. Its willingness to hold an isolated position need not match that of German forces in 1943 and 1944. Troops who expected Germany to defeat Britain through the submarine war might see little reason to die for an invasion they could not sustain. Surrender would then appear preferable without implying that they believed Germany had lost the wider war.
Notable Point · 57:03-58:53
Why a defeated landing could still restrict Britain
A small German landing could damage confidence in Britain's security and draw forces away from overseas operations despite its eventual defeat.