In April 2022, the war in Ukraine was making normal engagement with Russia harder, while relations with China were also complicated. That combination weakened hopes of balancing the two powers against each other. Reports of mass graves in Ukraine and allegations of cultural genocide in China informed the expectation of a more confrontational future. This dated contemporary analysis explains the threat assumptions behind the basing proposal that follows.
Notable Point · 49:45-51:51
The 2022 security context for reusing Scapa Flow
The April 2022 discussion connects Scapa Flow's possible reuse with worsening relations with Russia and China during the opening months of the war in Ukraine.