How could the survival of HMS Courageous and HMS Glorious affect the war against Japan?
Short answerTheir earlier carrier strikes could reduce German and Italian threats, freeing a stronger Royal Navy force for the Indian Ocean and Far East.
NotesThe counterfactual works through compounding effects rather than assigning the two carriers directly to one later battle. More carrier power could strengthen the attack at Mers-el-Kébir and reduce the burden on Force H. A larger Taranto strike could damage more of the Italian fleet, lowering the number of British battleships needed in the Mediterranean. If Courageous and Glorious operated together with proper air reconnaissance, they might also slow Scharnhorst and Gneisenau long enough for British capital ships to catch them. Fewer German and Italian surface threats would release ships from the Atlantic and Mediterranean. Britain could then build a stronger Eastern Fleet for the Indian Ocean instead of choosing offensive strength in one theater and defense in another.