What effect would one or two minelaying submarines patrolling San Bernardino Strait have on 24 October 1944?
Short answerTheir mines and torpedoes could convince the Japanese Center Force that the strait was trapped, potentially turning it back and preventing the Battle off Samar.
NotesMines and submarine torpedoes in the confined passage would cause losses or create the impression of a prepared trap. Given Japanese concern about American submarines, the Center Force might hesitate or turn back instead of charging through an apparently opposed strait. In that case the encounter with Taffy 3 and the historical Battle off Samar might never occur.