Notable Point · 3:49:04-3:50:27

Alternate histories must explain how their fleets appear

A fleet counterfactual changes once its construction, purchase, transit, and home-defense consequences are included.

Notes

The example asks what it means for Germany to acquire a fleet the size of Japan's rather than simply placing the ships on the map. Building it would give Britain and France time to respond, while buying it would create a visible transfer that might be intercepted. A visiting Japanese fleet would also leave the home islands exposed and force Britain to choose between concentrating locally and striking that vulnerability. The route by which a hypothetical force appears therefore produces much of the strategic answer.